The impact of power shortage highlights the four difficulties facing China's industrial economy

[China Glass Network] Under the "electricity shortage", the investment impulses of the central provinces were obviously frustrated.
Newer data shows that the PMI production index for May was 54.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the central region fell sharply by 5.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling from more than 55% to less than 50%. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing explained this by factors such as power shortages.
The reporter noted that, unlike in previous years, the region with power shortages has expanded significantly this year. In addition to the southeast coast, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui and other central provinces have also experienced serious “electricity shortages”.
For a long time, due to the strong driving force of heavy industry for GDP, the enthusiasm of local governments to develop heavy industry has been rising. As power-stricken provinces successively released power-limiting measures, heavy industry suddenly became a key target.
For example, Hunan, where the “electricity shortage” is more serious, its heavy industry increased by 25.5% in the first quarter, 10.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of light industry.
In terms of industries, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing data also showed that in some high-energy-consuming industries in May, such as papermaking, non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, the production index dropped significantly, with a total of 5 More than percentage points.
Since the PMI production index can reflect changes in output in terms of trends, it is more synchronous with industrial added value. This means that the industrial added value will fall in the second half of the year, driven by the fall in the production index in May.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jointly issued the "2011 China Industrial Economic Operation Spring Report", stating that the national industrial economy maintained steady and rapid development in the first four months, but still faced four difficulties and problems.
According to the "Report", production costs continue to rise, and the difficulty of business management is the primary problem facing the current industrial economy.
Strengthening the constraints of resources and environment, and increasing the pressure on factor protection is also one of the difficulties. The power supply is “not weak in the off-season”, and the tension in power supply in some regions has appeared earlier than in previous years. The railway capacity in the northwest and southwest regions continues to be tight, and high oil prices raise the cost of logistics and transportation, affecting the cross-regional transportation of bulk commodities such as coal.
Third, while the central bank's monetary policy effectively curbed excess liquidity, it also increased corporate financial pressure. This year, the central bank raised interest rates twice, so that corporate financing costs continue to rise. According to estimates by relevant institutions, the comprehensive cost of obtaining bank loans for SMEs has increased by at least 13%, far higher than the one-year lending benchmark interest rate.
Later, the inventory of finished products of enterprises increased rapidly, and the economic operation faced pressure from the callback. From January to April, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 23.2% year-on-year, up 12 percentage points from the end of last year. From the past experience, when the growth rate of finished goods inventory is 20%-25%, there will be a possibility of “destocking”, especially with the financial shortage of enterprises this year, the growth rate of industrial economy may face pressure from the callback, such as with high positions. The prices of the operations are intertwined, and the production and operation of enterprises is more difficult.
According to statistics, from January to April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 14.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year.

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