This year is the first year of China's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The macroeconomic environment facing the textile industry in China is very complicated. The global economic recovery is decelerating. There are tightening monetary policies such as raising interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio, and production. As the cost of elements continues to rise, the exchange rate of the *** against the US dollar continues to rise. The overall market is in the shadow of the macro-environment and the pressure on the industry continues to increase. Although it performed well in the opening game, it showed a slowing trend overall.
Production continued to grow at a slower rate. From January to May 2011, China's 35,400 textile enterprises above designated size (main business income of more than RMB 20 million) realized total industrial output value of 1990.87 billion yuan, an increase of 30.15% over the same period of last year. From January to February, the first quarter, and January to April, the growth rate of the output value of enterprises above designated size respectively slowed by 1.82 percentage points, 1.47 percentage points, and 0.39 percentage points.
Domestic market stability supports industry development According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the country amounted to 7.1268 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, and the growth rate continued to increase by 0.1 percentage points from January to April. Among them, the retail sales above the designated size for clothing, footwear, hats and needle textiles amounted to RMB 315.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, and the growth rate was basically the same as that of January-April. It shows that since the beginning of this year, China’s domestic market has maintained a stable growth momentum.
In the same period, China's textile enterprises above the designated size achieved a sales value of 194.205 billion yuan, an increase of 29.85% over the same period of last year, of which domestic output value was 1.606682 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.94%. The domestic sales value accounted for 82.73% of the total sales value, which was an increase of 1.31 percentage points over the same period of last year. It can be seen that the support role of the domestic demand market for the operation of China's textile industry continues to be consolidated.
The growth rate of investment continued to fall. According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the total investment in fixed assets of China's textile industry with over 5 million yuan actually reached 220.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.22%, and the growth rate fell from January to April. 36.93%) 0.71 percentage points. Among them, textile industry investment was 118.777 billion yuan, up 28.7 percent year-on-year; garment industry investment was 71.894 billion yuan, up 42.5% year-on-year; chemical fiber manufacturing investment was 25.091 billion yuan, up 66.43 percent year-on-year; textile equipment manufacturing industry investment 4.401 billion yuan, up year-on-year. 15.65%.
From a regional point of view, the investment in the central and western regions has grown faster, the proportion has been further increased, and the adjustment of the regional industrial structure has continued to accelerate. From January to May, the total investment in fixed assets of the textile industry in the central and western regions was RMB 80.309 billion, an increase of 55.78% year-on-year, accounting for 36.48% of the country's textile investment, which was 4.58% higher than the same period of last year.
Although the total investment in the textile industry maintained an overall growth from the actual completion of the investment, the number of newly started projects in the industry has been reduced due to the tight funding environment. According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the number of new projects started in the textile industry was 5,929, a year-on-year decrease of 2.52%.
Rapid growth in export growth continues to slow down According to customs statistics, from January to May 2011, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 91.123 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, and an acceleration of 6.68 percentage points from the same period of last year.
Although overall, from January to May, China’s textile and apparel exports continued to show a rapid growth, but it was 0.85 percentage points lower than the export growth rate from January to April (27.05%). The increase in export prices supported the growth rate of exports. The faster important factor. According to the statistics of the China Textile Industry Association Statistical Center, from January to May, China's textile and clothing export price index increased by 21.49 points year-on-year, of which textile export price index rose by 24.91 points and clothing export price index increased by 18.91 points.
Operational quality improves profit growth Decline According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the labor productivity of textile enterprises above designated size in China (calculated according to the total industrial output value) was 482,800 yuan/person, an increase of 21.62% over the same period of last year; 5.82%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage point from the same period of last year. Reflects the industry's level of application of technology and management levels continue to increase.
Since the beginning of this year, the continued strong domestic sales, accelerated structural adjustment within the industry, and improved operating quality, the profitability of Chinese textile companies has increased over the same period of last year, but has been affected by factors such as rising costs and close funding. The profit growth has continued to fall. According to statistics, from January to May 2011, total accumulated profit of textile enterprises above designated size was 97.716 billion yuan, up 42.84% year-on-year, and the growth rate was down 10.73% from January to March (53.57%). The industry-wide profit rate was 5.06 over the same period. %, an increase of 0.42 percentage points over the same period last year.
Three major problems affect the operating factors: First of all, textile companies' ability to accept cotton prices has continued to weaken, and rapid fluctuations in cotton prices have made it difficult for textile companies to smile.
In recent years, the high price of cotton has undoubtedly been a key factor in the pressure on raw material costs. From the second half of 2009, the price of cotton in China has been rising all the way, causing textile companies to complain. By March 2011, the monthly average price of domestically produced 328 cotton has risen to 30,732 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to 2.4 times the average market price of domestic 328 cotton made in 2009. Since mid-March this year, domestic cotton prices have been falling. By the end of May 2011, the rate of decline was nearly 30%, but it was still at the high level of 24,500 yuan/ton.
Although companies have tried to absorb cost pressures by adjusting product prices, increasing production efficiency, and improving management methods, price transmission still cannot simultaneously absorb the pressure of rising costs. In addition, due to the combined influence of factors such as tighter capital environment, sluggish turnover, and the use of chemical fiber substitutes, textile companies' ability to accept higher cotton prices has continued to weaken.
Second, uncertain factors in global demand have increased, and competition has exacerbated environmental tensions.
Since the beginning of this year, there have been some turbulences in the process of recovery of the world economy, including continued turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa that has led to sharp rises in energy prices. In addition, a major earthquake and the subsequent nuclear leak crisis in Japan on March 11th and the European debt crisis are close to the border. The issue of high fiscal deficits in the United States has become a drag on the progress of the world economic recovery.
Against the backdrop of the recovery of the world economy and the increasing uncertainty in the growth of international market demand, the competition for international competition in various countries has become fiercer, and the rising prices of raw materials faced by China's textile industry and rising labor costs have been particularly evident in recent years, making new developments a reality. China has directly challenged and competed with China's traditional textile and clothing industry (especially the apparel industry).
Third, the capital environment has tightened, raising interest rates has brought financing difficulties.
For many years, the financing of the textile industry, and in particular the majority of SME financing in the textile and apparel industry, has been a problem faced by the industry. Whether it is normal production and management, or the expansion of scale, transformation and upgrading, the lack of funds has made it difficult for textile and garment enterprises.
This year, the financial environment of textile companies (especially SMEs) has become more tense. Recently, the central bank has “adjusted†for the sixth time this year, and the reserve ratio of large and medium-sized financial institutions has reached a high of 21.5%. Since last year, this is the 12th time that the central bank has “accreditedâ€. Before January 12, last year, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions was still only 15.5%, which has so far increased by 6 percentage points.
The tightened monetary policy that is currently being introduced frequently increases the costs of the industry's ** and interest expenses. The increase in bank deposit reserve ratios and interest rates has also made the ** interest rate of private credit funds soar. This is due to the lack of access to the banks' ** channels, and many textile companies that are seeking private ** have increased their costs. According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the financial cost of China's textile industry increased by 36.64% year-on-year, far higher than the growth rate of main business income of the same period (31.14%) of 5.59 percentage points.
Development forecast Overall, since the beginning of this year, political disasters in some parts of the world and natural disasters in some regions have led to rising global trade risks. At the same time, the debt crisis in Europe has reached a critical point. The high US budget deficit problem has become a drag on world economic recovery. the elements of. Although the global economy is expected to continue its recovery, the speed will slow down and the international market demand may slow down. At the same time, external market pressure will be greater. Under the conditions of tight international competition, the slow downward trend of exports will continue.
In the domestic market, the domestic demand market will maintain steady growth as a whole and become an important support for the development of the textile industry. However, due to factors such as inflation, domestic residents’ spending power on textiles and clothing will be affected to a certain extent.
From the perspective of the internal environment, the prominent cost pressures and tight capital environment are the outstanding issues that China's textile industry needs to face. Although cotton prices have experienced rapid downward adjustments in the near future, they have caused a strong wait-and-see mood in the market, and the acceptance of barriers before and after the industrial chain. The pressure on the continued improvement in the profitability of the industry remains. The pressure on the capital environment will continue to increase in the second half of this year. It will also continue to increase the industry's costs and curb investment demand.
Based on the above factors, we believe that in the second half of 2011, the overall growth rate of China's textile industry may continue to show a slow performance.
Production continued to grow at a slower rate. From January to May 2011, China's 35,400 textile enterprises above designated size (main business income of more than RMB 20 million) realized total industrial output value of 1990.87 billion yuan, an increase of 30.15% over the same period of last year. From January to February, the first quarter, and January to April, the growth rate of the output value of enterprises above designated size respectively slowed by 1.82 percentage points, 1.47 percentage points, and 0.39 percentage points.
Domestic market stability supports industry development According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the country amounted to 7.1268 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, and the growth rate continued to increase by 0.1 percentage points from January to April. Among them, the retail sales above the designated size for clothing, footwear, hats and needle textiles amounted to RMB 315.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, and the growth rate was basically the same as that of January-April. It shows that since the beginning of this year, China’s domestic market has maintained a stable growth momentum.
In the same period, China's textile enterprises above the designated size achieved a sales value of 194.205 billion yuan, an increase of 29.85% over the same period of last year, of which domestic output value was 1.606682 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.94%. The domestic sales value accounted for 82.73% of the total sales value, which was an increase of 1.31 percentage points over the same period of last year. It can be seen that the support role of the domestic demand market for the operation of China's textile industry continues to be consolidated.
The growth rate of investment continued to fall. According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the total investment in fixed assets of China's textile industry with over 5 million yuan actually reached 220.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.22%, and the growth rate fell from January to April. 36.93%) 0.71 percentage points. Among them, textile industry investment was 118.777 billion yuan, up 28.7 percent year-on-year; garment industry investment was 71.894 billion yuan, up 42.5% year-on-year; chemical fiber manufacturing investment was 25.091 billion yuan, up 66.43 percent year-on-year; textile equipment manufacturing industry investment 4.401 billion yuan, up year-on-year. 15.65%.
From a regional point of view, the investment in the central and western regions has grown faster, the proportion has been further increased, and the adjustment of the regional industrial structure has continued to accelerate. From January to May, the total investment in fixed assets of the textile industry in the central and western regions was RMB 80.309 billion, an increase of 55.78% year-on-year, accounting for 36.48% of the country's textile investment, which was 4.58% higher than the same period of last year.
Although the total investment in the textile industry maintained an overall growth from the actual completion of the investment, the number of newly started projects in the industry has been reduced due to the tight funding environment. According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the number of new projects started in the textile industry was 5,929, a year-on-year decrease of 2.52%.
Rapid growth in export growth continues to slow down According to customs statistics, from January to May 2011, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 91.123 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, and an acceleration of 6.68 percentage points from the same period of last year.
Although overall, from January to May, China’s textile and apparel exports continued to show a rapid growth, but it was 0.85 percentage points lower than the export growth rate from January to April (27.05%). The increase in export prices supported the growth rate of exports. The faster important factor. According to the statistics of the China Textile Industry Association Statistical Center, from January to May, China's textile and clothing export price index increased by 21.49 points year-on-year, of which textile export price index rose by 24.91 points and clothing export price index increased by 18.91 points.
Operational quality improves profit growth Decline According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the labor productivity of textile enterprises above designated size in China (calculated according to the total industrial output value) was 482,800 yuan/person, an increase of 21.62% over the same period of last year; 5.82%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage point from the same period of last year. Reflects the industry's level of application of technology and management levels continue to increase.
Since the beginning of this year, the continued strong domestic sales, accelerated structural adjustment within the industry, and improved operating quality, the profitability of Chinese textile companies has increased over the same period of last year, but has been affected by factors such as rising costs and close funding. The profit growth has continued to fall. According to statistics, from January to May 2011, total accumulated profit of textile enterprises above designated size was 97.716 billion yuan, up 42.84% year-on-year, and the growth rate was down 10.73% from January to March (53.57%). The industry-wide profit rate was 5.06 over the same period. %, an increase of 0.42 percentage points over the same period last year.
Three major problems affect the operating factors: First of all, textile companies' ability to accept cotton prices has continued to weaken, and rapid fluctuations in cotton prices have made it difficult for textile companies to smile.
In recent years, the high price of cotton has undoubtedly been a key factor in the pressure on raw material costs. From the second half of 2009, the price of cotton in China has been rising all the way, causing textile companies to complain. By March 2011, the monthly average price of domestically produced 328 cotton has risen to 30,732 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to 2.4 times the average market price of domestic 328 cotton made in 2009. Since mid-March this year, domestic cotton prices have been falling. By the end of May 2011, the rate of decline was nearly 30%, but it was still at the high level of 24,500 yuan/ton.
Although companies have tried to absorb cost pressures by adjusting product prices, increasing production efficiency, and improving management methods, price transmission still cannot simultaneously absorb the pressure of rising costs. In addition, due to the combined influence of factors such as tighter capital environment, sluggish turnover, and the use of chemical fiber substitutes, textile companies' ability to accept higher cotton prices has continued to weaken.
Second, uncertain factors in global demand have increased, and competition has exacerbated environmental tensions.
Since the beginning of this year, there have been some turbulences in the process of recovery of the world economy, including continued turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa that has led to sharp rises in energy prices. In addition, a major earthquake and the subsequent nuclear leak crisis in Japan on March 11th and the European debt crisis are close to the border. The issue of high fiscal deficits in the United States has become a drag on the progress of the world economic recovery.
Against the backdrop of the recovery of the world economy and the increasing uncertainty in the growth of international market demand, the competition for international competition in various countries has become fiercer, and the rising prices of raw materials faced by China's textile industry and rising labor costs have been particularly evident in recent years, making new developments a reality. China has directly challenged and competed with China's traditional textile and clothing industry (especially the apparel industry).
Third, the capital environment has tightened, raising interest rates has brought financing difficulties.
For many years, the financing of the textile industry, and in particular the majority of SME financing in the textile and apparel industry, has been a problem faced by the industry. Whether it is normal production and management, or the expansion of scale, transformation and upgrading, the lack of funds has made it difficult for textile and garment enterprises.
This year, the financial environment of textile companies (especially SMEs) has become more tense. Recently, the central bank has “adjusted†for the sixth time this year, and the reserve ratio of large and medium-sized financial institutions has reached a high of 21.5%. Since last year, this is the 12th time that the central bank has “accreditedâ€. Before January 12, last year, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions was still only 15.5%, which has so far increased by 6 percentage points.
The tightened monetary policy that is currently being introduced frequently increases the costs of the industry's ** and interest expenses. The increase in bank deposit reserve ratios and interest rates has also made the ** interest rate of private credit funds soar. This is due to the lack of access to the banks' ** channels, and many textile companies that are seeking private ** have increased their costs. According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the financial cost of China's textile industry increased by 36.64% year-on-year, far higher than the growth rate of main business income of the same period (31.14%) of 5.59 percentage points.
Development forecast Overall, since the beginning of this year, political disasters in some parts of the world and natural disasters in some regions have led to rising global trade risks. At the same time, the debt crisis in Europe has reached a critical point. The high US budget deficit problem has become a drag on world economic recovery. the elements of. Although the global economy is expected to continue its recovery, the speed will slow down and the international market demand may slow down. At the same time, external market pressure will be greater. Under the conditions of tight international competition, the slow downward trend of exports will continue.
In the domestic market, the domestic demand market will maintain steady growth as a whole and become an important support for the development of the textile industry. However, due to factors such as inflation, domestic residents’ spending power on textiles and clothing will be affected to a certain extent.
From the perspective of the internal environment, the prominent cost pressures and tight capital environment are the outstanding issues that China's textile industry needs to face. Although cotton prices have experienced rapid downward adjustments in the near future, they have caused a strong wait-and-see mood in the market, and the acceptance of barriers before and after the industrial chain. The pressure on the continued improvement in the profitability of the industry remains. The pressure on the capital environment will continue to increase in the second half of this year. It will also continue to increase the industry's costs and curb investment demand.
Based on the above factors, we believe that in the second half of 2011, the overall growth rate of China's textile industry may continue to show a slow performance.
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