Brand apparel segment: Inflation will not change growth expectations, and 2011 earnings growth will accelerate. In January-March 2011, the value of domestic textile apparel retail sales increased by 22%. The increase in selling prices did not significantly affect sales. Judgment on the actual growth rate of textile apparel retail sales in 11 years will still exceed 20%. It is expected that the average sales growth of plate companies in autumn and winter will exceed 30%, which is higher than market expectations. In addition to the price increase factor (about 20%), the channel "low inventory, cash enough" has increased the willingness to expand. It is expected that the average increase in 1IQI net profit is expected to reach 40%, and it will be even better in 2011.
“Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€: The growth rate of textile apparel consumption will reach 15 to 20%. From 2005 to 2010, the value of retail sales of textile and clothing products above designated size increased by 23% in nominal terms, which is “2 to 3 times GDP growth rate†and is in a high growth cycle. The average annual growth rate of residents’ nominal income during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period will exceed 10%, while the growth of residents’ textile apparel consumption will be higher than their income growth. In addition, if urbanization is advancing at an average annual rate of 1%, static estimates will increase clothing consumption by an average of 13.8 billion yuan per annum and increase the growth rate of textile apparel consumption ZPCT.
Processing and manufacturing sector: It is more difficult to increase prices, and it is still not optimistic in the later period. In the first quarter, industry exports increased by 24%, and the annual growth rate of exports was forecast to rise to 15% (previously 10%). At present, domestic and foreign cotton prices are 2.96 and 42.60 yuan per ton. It is expected that the global cotton supply will increase by 8% in 11/12, and the "inventory/consumption" will increase to 40%. The cotton price in the later period may fall back. At present, the pressure on the cost of the plate is severe, and it is more difficult for the processing and manufacturing companies to continue to pass. The 1IQI revenue and net profit are expected to increase by 20% to 30% year-on-year, or become a high point of increase in annual performance.
Risk Warning: 1. If inflation is high and consumer confidence decline continues, textile and apparel consumption will be affected. 2. If the price index of clothing increases more than expected, the actual growth rate of textile and apparel apparel may be lower than expected; 3. Late cotton prices Severe fluctuations will affect the performance of the processing and manufacturing sector.
Investment strategy: The brand apparel segment dynamic PE 25 times, the investment expected to improve in three steps to achieve: orders will exceed expectations, quarterly earnings growth, the overall inflationary pressure eased. It is recommended that the seven wolves, the Annunciation Bird, and the Chinor, which are accelerated in terms of outreach, have lower valuations, as well as Meibang Garments and Rollei Home Textiles, which have obvious advantages in the sub-industry. Processing and manufacturing sector dynamic PE 15 times, the high cost of the future performance to face uncertainty, recommend the release of capacity, catalyzed Jiangnan high-fiber, concerned about a quarterly report may exceed expectations of Lu Tai A, Youngor.
“Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€: The growth rate of textile apparel consumption will reach 15 to 20%. From 2005 to 2010, the value of retail sales of textile and clothing products above designated size increased by 23% in nominal terms, which is “2 to 3 times GDP growth rate†and is in a high growth cycle. The average annual growth rate of residents’ nominal income during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period will exceed 10%, while the growth of residents’ textile apparel consumption will be higher than their income growth. In addition, if urbanization is advancing at an average annual rate of 1%, static estimates will increase clothing consumption by an average of 13.8 billion yuan per annum and increase the growth rate of textile apparel consumption ZPCT.
Processing and manufacturing sector: It is more difficult to increase prices, and it is still not optimistic in the later period. In the first quarter, industry exports increased by 24%, and the annual growth rate of exports was forecast to rise to 15% (previously 10%). At present, domestic and foreign cotton prices are 2.96 and 42.60 yuan per ton. It is expected that the global cotton supply will increase by 8% in 11/12, and the "inventory/consumption" will increase to 40%. The cotton price in the later period may fall back. At present, the pressure on the cost of the plate is severe, and it is more difficult for the processing and manufacturing companies to continue to pass. The 1IQI revenue and net profit are expected to increase by 20% to 30% year-on-year, or become a high point of increase in annual performance.
Risk Warning: 1. If inflation is high and consumer confidence decline continues, textile and apparel consumption will be affected. 2. If the price index of clothing increases more than expected, the actual growth rate of textile and apparel apparel may be lower than expected; 3. Late cotton prices Severe fluctuations will affect the performance of the processing and manufacturing sector.
Investment strategy: The brand apparel segment dynamic PE 25 times, the investment expected to improve in three steps to achieve: orders will exceed expectations, quarterly earnings growth, the overall inflationary pressure eased. It is recommended that the seven wolves, the Annunciation Bird, and the Chinor, which are accelerated in terms of outreach, have lower valuations, as well as Meibang Garments and Rollei Home Textiles, which have obvious advantages in the sub-industry. Processing and manufacturing sector dynamic PE 15 times, the high cost of the future performance to face uncertainty, recommend the release of capacity, catalyzed Jiangnan high-fiber, concerned about a quarterly report may exceed expectations of Lu Tai A, Youngor.
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